Potential Conflicts Regardless of Election Outcome
Andrew Yeo, the Korea Chair at the Brookings Institution, has warned that regardless of which party’s candidate wins a potential early presidential election following a successful impeachment, tensions between South Korea and the United States could arise.
“If Democratic Party candidates like Lee Jae-myung win the election, some friction could emerge,” Yeo said. “My sense is that a Donald Trump administration would push allies, including South Korea, to do more to deter and confront China. And that’s not the direction Lee Jae-myung may want to move in.”
He further noted uncertainties regarding Lee’s stance on Japan. “We’ve heard Lee Jae Myung saying that he wants to work with Japan,” he said. “He wants to strengthen the US, Japan, Korea, trilateral, but I am sorry to say whether that’s just the talking point now to capture the moderate voters, or whether he sincerely will move in that direction of continuing rapprochement with Japan.”
Yeo added, “There might be some issues under a progressive government with Korea-Japan relations and there may be some limitations, so I think that would lead to some friction with the U.S.”
Challenges Under a Conservative Leader
Yeo also suggested that even if the impeachment is dismissed, allowing President Yoon Suk-yeol to return to office, or if a conservative candidate from the People Power Party (PPP) wins the election, tensions with the U.S. could still arise.
“Trump seems to want to engage with Kim Jong-un, which the PPP would likely oppose. That will be highly problematic,” Yeo analyzed.
“If the PPP tries to tell Trump that he shouldn’t engage with Kim Jong-un, I think Trump will simply ignore South Korea and attempt to make a deal with Kim without really consulting South Korea,” Yeo said. “If that happens, there could be a serious break in the alliance.”
Regarding U.S.-North Korea negotiations, Yeo believes the same issues would arise under a Democratic administration in South Korea. “If it was premeditated—which the DP argues Yoon and his close associates considered for a while—then yes, that’s concerning as a matter of trust,” he said.
Impact of Martial Law Controversy
Yeo also suggested that even if the impeachment is dismissed, allowing President Yoon Suk-yeol to return to office, or if a conservative candidate from the People Power Party (PPP) wins the election, tensions with the U.S. could still arise.
“Trump seems to want to engage with Kim Jong-un, which the PPP would likely oppose. That will be highly problematic,” Yeo analyzed.
“If the PPP tries to tell Trump that he shouldn’t engage with Kim Jong-un, I think Trump will simply ignore South Korea and attempt to make a deal with Kim without really consulting South Korea,” Yeo said. “If that happens, there could be a serious break in the alliance.”
Regarding U.S.-North Korea negotiations, Yeo believes the same issues would arise under a Democratic administration in South Korea. “If it was premeditated—which the DP argues Yoon and his close associates considered for a while—then yes, that’s concerning as a matter of trust,” he said.
About Andrew Yeo
Andrew Yeo is a political science professor at The Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C. Specializing in Korean affairs, he has served as director of Asian Studies and as a senior fellow at the Mansfield Foundation. He holds degrees from Northwestern and Cornell University.
BY YOUNGNAM KIM [kim.youngnam@koreadaily.com]
