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Tuesday, December 10, 2024

U.S.-South Korea nuclear deterrence talks put on hold as martial law sparks tension

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On December 3, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law without prior notice to the United States, its only ally, which led to the cancellation of a scheduled meeting on strengthening extended deterrence.

This action clearly conveyed displeasure from the U.S. regarding the situation. Experts suggest that this incident could have a negative impact on the Korea-U.S. alliance, particularly during the transition period of the U.S. administration, and that South Korea’s overall diplomatic standing is likely to suffer as well.

After the martial law was lifted on December 4, the first official response from the White House was one of confusion and surprise, with officials stating that they had not been informed in advance. U.S. President Joe Biden, who was on a visit to Angola, was briefed on the situation in South Korea.

 

People attend a candlelight vigil condemning South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s surprise declaration of martial law last night, which was reversed hours later, and to call for his resignation, in Seoul, South Korea, December 4, 2024. [REUTERS]

Following this, the U.S. government issued statements at various levels urging the South Korean government to comply with a National Assembly resolution that called for the lifting of the martial law. Kurt Campbell, the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for Indo-Pacific Affairs, expressed “grave concern” about the situation, adding that the U.S. hoped for a resolution consistent with the rule of law.

Around 4:27 a.m. on December 4, after President Yoon officially lifted the martial law, a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council (NSC) expressed relief, noting that President Yoon had “reversed course on his concerning declaration of martial law and respected the National Assembly’s vote to end it.”

The United States has repeatedly expressed concern over South Korea’s domestic situation, a rare move that has had significant implications for joint military operations. This concern led to a delay in the planned US-South Korea joint military exercises designed to respond to North Korea’s nuclear threats.

 

President Yoon Suk Yeol shakes hands with President Joe Biden during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November 2024. [Joint Press Corps]

On December 4, the Pentagon announced that the U.S.-South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) meeting and the first NCG tabletop exercise (TTX), originally scheduled to take place in Washington, D.C. for two days starting that day, were postponed.

The NCG, which is widely regarded as one of the most important diplomatic achievements between Presidents Yoon and Biden in strengthening deterrence against North Korea, was to be held as a significant final event before the Biden administration’s transition. However, the meeting has now been canceled without explanation for the delay.

Sources familiar with the situation revealed that the U.S. had responded extremely sensitively upon hearing news of martial law in South Korea, and reached out through various channels to inquire about the situation and its developments. The sources indicated that the US found the lack of a proper response from South Korea frustrating and concerning.

The United States is closely monitoring the situation on the Korean Peninsula, which it views as a potential direct threat to its national security. In addition to North Korea, the U.S. must also consider China’s unexpected responses, and the growing possibility that Russia—now effectively a treaty ally of North Korea—could intervene as well.

Concerns are rising that the martial law crisis has significantly damaged the diplomatic achievements accumulated by the Yoon administration. There are also fears that it could have a negative impact on the upcoming “first impression” of South Korea by the second-term Trump administration. While President-elect Trump has yet to comment, his close associate, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, expressed his shock via social media platform X by saying “Wow.”

Professor Lee Byung-chul of Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies pointed out, “While world leaders are scrambling to meet with President-elect Trump and major countries are focusing on extensive lobbying and building new networks with the U.S., South Korea’s diplomacy has effectively returned to zero, with everything coming to a halt.”

BY HYUNJU PARK, YOUNGNAM KIM [kim.youngnam@koreadaily.com]