South Korea anxiously watches as U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine begin amid uncertainty

U.S. President Donald Trump publicly acknowledged for the first time that North Korean troops have been killed in Russia’s war against Ukraine on Tuesday as U.S.-Russia negotiations commenced in Riyadh.

“Soldiers are being killed by the thousands on a weekly basis,” Trump said at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago, Florida,  following the U.S.-Russia talks. “They’re not American soldiers; they are Russian soldiers and they’re Ukrainian soldiers largely, although a lot of Koreans have been killed.”

Trump criticized the former Joe Biden administration’s decision to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S.-supplied long-range missiles, arguing in December that the policy change inadvertently “brought North Korean soldiers into the fray.” Although neither North Korea nor Russia has officially acknowledged the presence of North Korean troops in Ukraine, Trump’s remarks indicate that he was aware of their involvement before taking office.

U.S. and Russian officials have entered fast-tracked negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, without Kyiv’s involvement, with Europe and other interested parties, including South Korea, closely watching the process.

On Friday, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Munich to discuss potential resolutions to the war. Days later, on Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov led high-level talks in Saudi Arabia, agreeing to form a diplomatic task force to push forward peace discussions.

While protracted negotiations are expected amid concern over the sidelining of Ukraine and Washington’s European allies, analysts suggest that once the war ends, Trump may shift his focus to North Korea, potentially reopening stalled U.S.-North Korea talks.

During a Monday press briefing, U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg said he “wouldn’t be surprised if global issues are brought up” during negotiations, including Russia’s relationships with North Korea, Iran and China.

“Given the complexity of U.S.-Russia negotiations, Trump may take longer than expected to shift attention to North Korea,” said Oh Gyeong-seob, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification. “However, North Korea will likely be on his agenda to seek a diplomatic breakthrough.”

On Wednesday, the first known case of a North Korean prisoner of war (POW) expressing intent to defect to South Korea appeared in a news report.

“I have made up my mind 80 percent,” said one of two captured North Korean soldiers, identified only as Ri, in an interview published Wednesday by South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo newspaper. “Above all, I will seek refuge, and I am thinking about going to the Republic of Korea.”

Ri suffered serious wounds to his jaw and arm.

When asked if he had been ordered to commit suicide rather than be captured, Ri replied he “might have detonated” if he had a grenade, saying that becoming a prisoner is considered a “betrayal” in the North Korean army.

Ri also expressed concerns about the safety of his family.

“If my government finds out that I have been captured, my father and mother won’t be able to stay in Pyongyang,” he said. When asked whether he would face hardships if he returned to North Korea, he simply responded, “Of course.”

South Korea’s government replied by affirming its policy of accepting “all North Korean defectors who request asylum” while adding that it has already “conveyed its stance to Ukraine” and will continue necessary negotiations.

“North Korean soldiers are considered our citizens under the Constitution,” South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement. “Not only does respecting an individual’s free will regarding the repatriation of prisoners comply with international law and customary practices, but we also believe that no one should be returned to a place where they may face persecution against their will.”

Yet legal challenges remain.

The Geneva Conventions dictate that POWs must be repatriated after a conflict ends. This indicates that since North Korea hasn’t acknowledged its troop deployment, captured soldiers could be sent to Russia and later returned to Pyongyang. However, the International Committee of the Red Cross allows exceptions if repatriation poses a risk of persecution.

Experts point out that the fate of North Korean POWs remains uncertain as broader U.S.-Russia negotiations are unlikely to devote much attention to the issue, especially given the urgency surrounding the return of Ukraine’s own captured soldiers.

“Much will depend on U.S. involvement and South Korea’s diplomatic efforts,” said Oh. “Given America’s significant influence in this war, South Korea must push for Washington’s support in securing the POW’s safe passage.”

With the war nearing an end, analysts are divided on how it will impact North Korea-Russia relations.

The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty signed in June 2024 strengthened ties between the two nations, with North Korea securing political, economic and military assistance from Moscow in exchange for sending its soldiers. In return, Russia practically paralyzed the monitoring of UN sanctions on Pyongyang and provided financial and military support.

Some experts believe that once the war ends, Russia will no longer need North Korean assistance and may choose to distance itself from Pyongyang and improve ties with South Korea, which has a larger economy. Others argue that the two nations will remain close allies, considering their shared anti-U.S. policies and geopolitical interests.

“North Korea-Russia ties may become stronger even after the war ends,” said Oh. “Their strategic alignment against the United States keeps them bonded.”

Maintaining close ties with Russia is a priority for North Korea, according to Oh, as Russia provides diplomatic protection for North Korea on the international stage and offers critical political, military and economic benefits.

Conversely, even after the war ends, Russia is unlikely to see a significant improvement in its relations with the West.

“Especially in Northeast Asia, Moscow views keeping North Korea within its sphere of influence as a key strategy for maximizing its diplomatic and security interests,” Oh added.

BY SEO JI-EUN [seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr]