Scott Snyder, a senior fellow for Korea at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and an expert on U.S.-South Korea diplomacy, believes that the upcoming elections in the United States and South Korea will be the most significant turning point for the alliance in over 70 years.
In an in-depth interview with the Korea Daily on December 12, Snyder emphasized that South Korea’s own nuclear armament could significantly shake up U.S.-South Korea diplomatic relations.
In early December, he released a book titled “The United States–South Korea Alliance: Why It May Fail and Why It Must Not,” examining the future of the alliance ahead of his departure from the CFR to head the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) next April.
The book, which closely analyzes the conditions and circumstances under which the 70-year-old alliance could evolve or regress, has garnered attention in South Korean and U.S. diplomatic circles.
Below is an excerpted interview with Scott A. Snyder.
-With elections approaching, both South Korea and the U.S. are busy. What is the current state of U.S.-South Korea relations, and are there any specific issues to focus on at the moment?
“The relationship is healthy and strong. If there is a potential change factor, it’s the elections next year in both countries. As you know, politics in both countries is currently characterized by a very strong two-party system, with a strong national self-interest frame at play. I think this has the potential to have a significant impact on the 70+ year old alliance between the two countries.”
-What would be the impact on the alliance if the governing party in South Korea fails to win a majority in the general election?
“Most people are saying that if the general election results in a defeat for the governing party, the Yoon administration’s power will be in a ‘lame duck’ state. This election is most likely to be an assessment of President Yoon. And I understand that experts in South Korea believe that this election could set the stage for the next presidential election. I can’t say with certainty that there will be a major change in the public’s assessment of him as a result of the election, but I think some changes in foreign relations are clearly inevitable.”
-Presidential candidate Trump has been using “dictator” and prioritizing the pursuit of his country’s interests. How do you think the process and outcome of next year’s presidential election will affect the U.S.-ROK relationship?
“The U.S. presidential election will also affect U.S.-ROK relations. Recently, Trump said that he might dismantle and end the alliance with South Korea if elected, and he has made several other statements about international diplomacy. It’s hard to know which of his statements are true because he makes a lot of comments, but at this point, I think we can expect a lot of changes if Trump is re-elected.”
-However, some expect that if Trump is re-elected, the initiatives started through the Panmunjom and Hanoi meetings could be expanded.
“There are three major differences between the situation at the time of the Hanoi meeting and now. First, it is clear that the Yoon administration, unlike the previous Moon administration, will oppose any contact or negotiations with the Kim Jong-un leadership. This is a completely different condition from the Hanoi situation. Second, the rivalry and conflict between the United States and China has deepened. Moreover, President Trump’s diplomatic decisions and activities in Hanoi were mostly analyzed for his own political positioning and gains. The third is that this process has had a negative impact on South Korea’s trust in the U.S. as an ally, leading to its own nuclear development in response to the North Korean threat. South Korean public opinion is also based on ‘Korea first’ rather than alliances or the stability of Northeast Asia as a whole, and there are voices saying that South Korea should be able to arm itself without U.S. assistance.”
-You have said that South Korea could “possess nuclear capabilities on its own.” Is there a similar sentiment among diplomatic experts?
“I intended to convey that the basis of the ‘alliance’ is not a spontaneous opposition to South Korea’s nuclear arming itself. What I meant is that the hypothetical path to nuclear development is possible. However, the current Biden administration is opposed to Korea’s nuclear armament, and it is highly unlikely that Trump will allow it if he returns to power. Besides the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), a nuclear-armed South Korea would be detrimental to the alliance between the United States and South Korea.”
-As a longtime observer of the U.S.-ROK diplomatic relationship, do you think it’s likely that the global community would allow South Korea to possess nuclear capabilities, and is it possible that this would become common sense?
“At this point, it is very unlikely and not common sense. South Korea should not be the one to break the NPT. I think the South Korean government is well aware of this.”
-South Korean public opinion is nearly 70% in favor of developing its own nuclear weapons. Is this misleading?
“I think it’s due to concern and worry about the North Korean nuclear threat. However, I think it is a public opinion that does not take into account the damage and aftermath that will ultimately result.”
-Are there any signs of improvement in trade relations between the U.S. and South Korea as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)?
“South Korean companies have profited greatly from entering the Chinese market in recent decades. Now they’re looking to do the same by investing in the U.S. market. However, they are facing a ‘protectionist’ barrier called the IRA. However, the IRA will open up a huge market and opportunity for Korean EVs in the long run. The tax incentives have gotten a lot of attention, but I think the opportunities will eventually be wider.”
-In the book, you also mention the relationship between South Korea and Japan. Do you think the relationship between South Korea and Japan will continue to improve and is it positive for regional security?
“While the progress in bilateral relations is a positive step forward, there is also a concern that the ongoing elections will take it back to the beginning. Importantly, public sentiment does not yet recognize that there is much more to be gained from these changes. Over time, we expect the benefits of improved relations to take shape if the benefits are real and materialized.”
-What do you see as the roles of South Korea and the United States for engaging in conversation with North Korea?
“At this point, nothing will get done unless North Korea is willing to talk. They have to open the door first. But I think it will take quite a while.”
BY BRIAN CHOI, JUNHAN PARK [ichoi@koreadaily.com]
