A recent report suggests that North Korea possesses approximately 50 nuclear warheads and has the potential to increase this number to 90.
“North Korea continues to modernize and grow its nuclear weapons arsenal,” the report released by the U.S.-based Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on July 15 said. “The authors cautiously estimate that North Korea may have produced enough fissile material to hypothetically build up to 90 nuclear warheads, but has likely assembled fewer than that—potentially around 50. To deliver the warheads, North Korea is enhancing and diversifying its missile force, most recently with new solid-fuel long-range strategic missiles, short-range tactical missiles, and sea-based missiles.”
This is a significant increase from their previous 2022 year report, where they estimated that North Korea may have produced enough fissile material to build between 45 and 55 nuclear weapons but had only assembled 20 to 30.
“We estimate that North Korea might be capable of adding sufficient fissile material to produce an additional half-a-dozen nuclear warheads per year—enough to potentially produce a total of up to approximately 130 weapons by the end of the decade,” the report said.
The report also suggested that North Korea’s nuclear warheads would likely be single-stage fission weapons with yields possibly between 10 and 20 kilotons of TNT equivalent, akin to those demonstrated in the 2013 and 2016 tests.
The authors of the report projected that the chance of North Korea actually launching nuclear weapons is low.
“North Korea has also threatened to launch nuclear weapons in response to more minor provocations, including joint US-South Korean military exercises,” the report read. “However, despite such occasional inflammatory statements, it appears highly likely that North Korea—as with other nuclear-armed states—would use its nuclear weapons only under extreme circumstances, particularly if the continued existence of the North Korean state and its political leadership were threatened.”
Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project with the Federation of American Scientists, and Matt Korda, the associate director at the team, co-authored the report.
Meanwhile, the Sweden-based Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated that North Korea has now assembled around 50 warheads and possesses enough fissile material to reach a total of up to 90 in a report published last month.
BY YOUNGNAM KIM [kim.youngnam@koreadaily.com]
