North Korea has unveiled a new type of Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) with 12 axles (24 wheels, 12 on each side), marking the first time such a model has been revealed.
This suggests the possibility that North Korea is developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). An increase in the number of axles could accommodate a larger missile propulsion system and more warheads.
On September 8, the Workers’ Party of Korea’s official newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visited a defense factory under the Second Economic Committee to assess the production of military equipment.
A photo on the third page of Rodong Sinmun shows Kim placing his hand on the wheels of the TEL and engaging in discussions with officials. This is the first time North Korea has displayed a TEL with 12 axles.
Previously, the TEL for North Korea’s Hwasong-17 ICBM had the highest number of axles, with 11 (22 wheels), while the Hwasong-18 model uses a 9-axle TEL (18 wheels). The increase in axles for the Hwasong-17 reflects its length of 23 meters, compared to the 20 meters of the Hwasong-18.
The increase in axles implies the TEL is designed to carry a larger, heavier missile and warhead. This has raised speculation that North Korea might be working on a new ICBM with greater range and payload capacity than the Hwasong-17 or 18.
North Korea typically tests ICBMs using a lofted trajectory, which shortens the distance but increases the launch angle. However, if launched at a normal angle (30 to 45 degrees), the Hwasong-17 and 18 could potentially travel over 15,000 kilometers, putting the entire U.S. mainland, including Washington D.C. (11,000 kilometers from Pyongyang), within range.
There are also concerns that North Korea could further enhance its nuclear strike capabilities by fitting multiple warheads on its ICBMs. While adding more warheads reduces the missile’s range, increasing the size of the propulsion system, along with the number of axles on the TEL, could compensate for this, keeping the missile’s range within striking distance of the U.S. mainland.
Some experts speculate that the previous TELs used for the Hwasong-17 and 18 may have been insufficient to bear the weight of these missiles, prompting the development of a new TEL.
Additionally, North Korea’s unveiling of the 12-axle TEL is seen as a strategic move to pressure the U.S. ahead of its November presidential election.
Yang Wook, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, noted that while North Korea has refrained from recent provocations against the U.S., the new TEL could signal an impending ICBM test before the U.S. election. The TEL could be a warning of a new missile test, a message North Korea may send before November.
Meanwhile, despite holding a celebration event for the 76th anniversary of the country’s founding on September 8, Kim Jong-un did not attend, an unusual move given the event’s close association with his ideology. Some observers suggest his absence could be due to the ongoing flood recovery efforts or preparations for significant decisions ahead of the U.S. election.
Rodong Sinmun reported on September 9 that a celebratory event and evening gathering took place at Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang, attended by citizens, students, and top officials, including Premier Kim Tok-hun and Supreme People’s Assembly Chairman Choe Ryong-hae.
During his speech, Premier Kim Tok-hun emphasized the importance of strengthening North Korea’s self-defense capabilities, vowing to protect the country and its people from any threat. His remarks about “aggression” and “war” suggest that the regime is attempting to rally internal support by channeling dissatisfaction outward and emphasizing national unity in the face of economic challenges and recent flood damage.
The event also included members of the pro-North Korean General Association of Korean Residents in Japan (Chongryon) and foreign diplomats stationed in North Korea, although specific countries or individuals were not named.
Experts note that Kim Jong-un’s absence from the event is noteworthy, especially given his emphasis on national unity through symbolic state functions. It could reflect the seriousness of the flood damage or signify ongoing deliberations related to military actions, such as the delayed launch of a military reconnaissance satellite or plans to address flood-affected military facilities.
Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies, stated, “Kim Jong-un’s absence is unusual and suggests he is grappling with significant issues that require careful resolution.”
Oh Kyung-seop, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, added that the composition of the leadership present at the event also merits attention, highlighting the possibility that preparations for military actions, including the next satellite launch, are underway.
BY JAESUNG BAE, YOUNGNAM KIM [hongdoya@joongang.co.kr]
