Biden’s decision to withdraw from the presidential race is a historic event. It would be even more so if Kamala Harris defeats Trump and becomes president.
I would like to view Biden’s withdrawal as a courageous decision driven by internal requests from the Democratic Party. It serves as significant evidence of his commitment to democracy and demonstrates his political insight and courage in knowing when to step down from power.
As Harris has been chosen as the presidential candidate, it is difficult to predict who will win between her and Trump based on current public opinion. Both candidates are nearly equal in terms of campaign funds. The key factor will be how they can mobilize their supporters to vote.
In the 2020 presidential election between Trump and Biden, the decisive factors for Biden’s victory were Trump’s mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent decline in various economic indicators. Moreover, the accurate reporting by the majority of progressive media and their sharp criticism of Trump played a crucial role. I believe that the truthfulness of progressive media defeated Trump’s fake news.
In the 2016 election between Hillary and Trump, Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan gained sensational popularity among the working class in swing states. Despite the lack of data to support his claims, many workers agreed with his argument that their economic struggles were due to cheap Chinese goods and illegal immigrants. As a result, Trump became president.
However, during Trump’s four years in office, the lives of workers did not improve despite the border wall and high tariffs on Chinese goods. Furthermore, the outbreak of COVID-19 and the Trump administration’s failures led to widespread disappointment. The massive death toll from COVID-19 brought shame and great disappointment to the public. Even less-educated workers could clearly see the policy failures under the Trump administration. I believe the accurate reporting by the media and their criticism of the government led public opinion.
Currently, Trump’s supporters are mostly anti-immigration advocates, white supremacists, and narrow-minded religious groups. The cohesiveness of this support base is strong because their political decisions are heavily influenced by their religious beliefs. However, I believe there is no potential for expansion. Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) slogan is not as sensational as it was in 2016.
The key to this election lies in how to bring rational moderates to the polls. During Biden’s four years, there were no major domestic economic blunders. Unemployment rates, stock indices, and economic growth rates have been better than expected.
Last year, the U.S. recorded a growth rate of 3.1%, exceeding expectations, and avoided a feared recession. The growth rate for the first quarter of this year was also a healthy 3%. The unemployment rate has remained below 4% for over two years, and real wages have increased.
Concerns about a historic inflation spike have been alleviated, with the inflation rate now falling to around 3%. Therefore, I believe that Trump’s criticism of the current administration’s policies will not gain much traction. Additionally, Trump’s personal scandals and actions to cover up his sexual misconduct have led a New York jury to render a guilty verdict. This is a critical disqualification for rational moderates.
In particular, Trump’s interference in the last election and the lies he told will become targets of criticism from progressive media. As the election approaches, the progressive media will likely intensify their criticism of Trump’s immorality and illegality.
In Harris’s case, due to her heritage, she is likely to gain support from both the Black and Indian communities. The potential for political solidarity among the Black community, as seen during Obama’s era, and the financial support from the Indian community, which dominates the U.S. IT industry, will be significant political assets for her. The progressive leanings of her running mate, Tim Walz, are likely to draw Rust Belt workers’ votes back to the Democratic side.
I believe that Trump’s re-election would be a disaster for American society. His pro-business stance and self-centered political behavior that disregards established norms could destroy the rational practices America has built over time. For example, during the Trump administration, he appointed a coal industry advocate as the head of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), a person entirely unrelated to environmental protection.
This was clearly a decision driven by his pro-business stance, without considering the rationality of government organization. I anticipate that similar events will occur frequently if Trump is re-elected. His approach to North Korea-U.S. relations is also likely to be irrational. He is unlikely to receive active support from professional bureaucrats within the government, making it difficult for his North Korea policy to be consistent. This is why Korean Americans should be cautious about supporting Trump.
This November’s election is extremely difficult to predict. However, I predict a victory for Harris and Tim Walz. The reason is that I still believe in the existence of rational moderates who care about America. I also trust the progressive media’s accurate reporting of facts and their critical spirit in uncovering the truth. I am confident that the U.S. progressive media will bring rational moderates back to the polls. The importance of the media in this U.S. election will be more evident than ever.
By K. Freeman Sungwoo Lee
The author is a lawyer.
