Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and an expert on the Korean Peninsula, predicted that “North Korean real estate development will be a key focus” in former President Donald Trump’s potential second-term North Korea policy.
During a Korea-U.S. diplomatic relations book talk event held at the Korean Cultural Center in Los Angeles on February 26, Cha stated, “President Trump has a strong interest in North Korean real estate.”
He further projected that “Trump still wants to engage with North Korea but will take a different approach than in his first term.”
Previously, at the 2019 North Korea-U.S. summit held in Hanoi, Vietnam, Trump failed to reach an agreement with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. At the time, the demand for CVID (Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible Dismantlement) of North Korea’s nuclear missiles was cited as a major reason for the breakdown of the talks.
Cha predicted that the Trump administration’s North Korea policy would unfold in three directions.
First, he noted that instead of complete denuclearization, Trump would focus on “threat reduction.”
“Trump will concentrate on eliminating the threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that can directly strike the U.S. mainland,” Cha explained. He added, “Short-range missiles and conventional weapons are not considered threats.”
Cha viewed North Korea’s real estate as a potential variable that could influence North Korea-U.S. dialogue.
“Trump has shown interest in Wonsan’s coastal area in North Korea,” Cha said, adding, “He has long expressed his desire to build casinos and condominiums there.”
“It may sound like a joke, but Trump is taking this seriously, which could serve as a breakthrough in North Korea-U.S. relations,” Cha stated.
Lastly, Cha explained that Trump’s goal of ending the Russia-Ukraine war could also shape his North Korea policy.
“Trump has promised to end the war, but North Korea is providing troops and military supplies to Russia,” Cha said. “To stop this, he may seek to reopen talks with North Korea.”
Concerns were also raised that if North Korea-U.S. dialogue resumes or relations improve, the fear of a “Korea passing” scenario could become a reality.
“If Trump directly engages in dialogue with Kim Jong-un, South Korea’s position could become unstable,” Cha warned, adding that “the possibility of decoupling between South Korea and the U.S. cannot be ignored.”
Meanwhile, the book talk event was co-hosted by the Korean Cultural Center, the Consulate General of the Republic of Korea in Los Angeles, and CSIS. At the event, Cha and Professor Ramon Pacheco Pardo of King’s College introduced their co-authored book, Korea: A New History of South & North, which covers modern Korean history from the Japanese colonial period to the present day.
Cha previously served on the White House’s National Security Council (NSC) during the George W. Bush administration as the deputy head of the U.S. delegation to the Six-Party Talks on North Korea’s nuclear program. Currently, he provides policy recommendations on Korea-U.S. relations at CSIS while also mentoring students at Georgetown University.
BY KYEONGJUN KIM [kim.kyeongjun1@Koreadaily.com]
