A growing number of global experts, including those from the United States, believe South Korea is likely to develop its own nuclear weapons within the next decade, according to a recent survey.
The Atlantic Council, a U.S.-based think tank, released its “Global Foresight 2025” survey results on February 12 (local time), which polled 357 strategists and experts from 60 countries between late November and early December 2024.
When asked which countries were most likely to develop nuclear weapons within the next 10 years (with multiple responses allowed), 40.2% of respondents named South Korea, ranking it third after Iran (72.8%) and Saudi Arabia (41.6%).
Sharpest Increase in Expectations for South Korea’s Nuclear Armament
Although South Korea ranked third, it showed the largest increase in nuclear armament expectations compared to the previous year.
In the 2024 survey, only 25.4% of experts predicted South Korea would acquire nuclear weapons within a decade, meaning this year’s figure rose by 14.8 percentage points.
By contrast, Iran’s probability slightly declined (from 73.5% to 72.8%), while Saudi Arabia’s increased by 2 percentage points, and Japan’s saw a 9.3 percentage point rise.
The sharp increase in expectations for South Korea’s nuclear armament is believed to reflect North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile capabilities over the past year, its deepening military alliance with Russia—including arms trade and troop deployments—and the weakened international enforcement of UN sanctions against North Korea.
Growing public support in South Korea for an independent nuclear arsenal, with some domestic polls showing a majority in favor.
Experts Predict Higher Chances of North Korea Using Nuclear Weapons
When asked which country or actor is most likely to use nuclear weapons within the next 10 years, Russia ranked first (25.9%), followed by North Korea (24.2%).
Notably, North Korea’s likelihood of using nuclear weapons saw a sharp rise from 15.2% in last year’s survey to 24.2%, marking a 9 percentage point increase.
Other countries included Israel (12.3%), China (6.3%), the United States (5.1%), Pakistan (3.1%), and India (1.7%).
Meanwhile, 51.6% of respondents said they do not expect nuclear weapons to be used in the next decade, down from 63.4% in the previous year. Additionally, 18.8% of experts predicted that a terrorist organization could use nuclear weapons, a slight decrease from 19.6% in the 2023 survey.
Experts See Growing Possibility of a Russia-Iran-China-North Korea Alliance by 2035
When asked whether Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea would form an official military alliance by 2035, 45.9% of experts responded: “yes”, surpassing those who answered, “uncertain” (23.4%) or “no” (30.7%).
However, the survey also showed declining confidence in U.S. global security commitments. When asked whether the U.S. would maintain its security alliances in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, only 60.9% responded positively, a sharp decline from 78.7% in the previous year.
The Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security conducted this survey after the U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024, reflecting growing concerns over President Donald Trump’s foreign policy approach.
Of the 357 respondents, nearly 55% were American, with others representing various sectors, including government, academia, nonprofit organizations, and multinational institutions.
BY YOUNGNAM KIM [kim.youngnam@koreadaily.com]
