South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) announced Monday that it had detected signs inside North Korea that the country plans to send additional troops and equipment to Russia for its war against Ukraine.
According to the JCS, Pyongyang has continued to prepare trash-laden balloons to launch into the South while strengthening security along the military demarcation line (MDL) at the inter-Korean border. It may also launch a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) around the end of the year.
A report on recent trends within the North Korean military released by the JCS on Monday confirmed — through various sources — that North Korean forces have suffered about 1,100 casualties so far in combat against Ukraine and that the North Korean military is currently preparing to rotate its troops or send reinforcements.
North Korea is also providing weaponry such as 240-millimeter multiple rocket launchers and 170-millimeter self-propelled howitzers to Russia, according to the JCS report. In particular, the report said signs have been detected suggesting Pyongyang will produce and supply Moscow with suicide drones of the type revealed during North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s on-site visit to military facilities last month.
“Suicide drones are one of the key developments by the North Korean military that Kim is focusing on,” said a JCS official. “We understand that North Korea has expressed its intention to give the drones to Russia, and we are tracking such movements.”
The JCS further analyzed that Pyongyang firmly intends to modernize its conventional forces, which were previously considered inferior to Seoul’s, by using the unique nature of the ongoing war to exhaust obsolete equipment and gain combat experience for new troops. The JCS said this could lead to an increase in military threats to South Korea.
North Korea has been conducting winter exercises since November, with no unusual trends related to provocations identified so far. The JCS assessed that the North is monitoring the domestic political situation in the South and is focused on managing its domestic situation ahead of the ruling party’s plenary meeting scheduled for the end of the year.
Given that North Korean state media has issued only a handful of fact-based reports on South Korea’s martial law declaration and impeachment crisis, Pyongyang appears to be trying to prevent the instability that could arise from detailed reporting of the situation and to protect the Kim regime.
The North Korean military recently deployed thousands of more troops for various tasks, including installing barbed wires and barriers in the MDL area, the report said.
The number of workers detected around the MDL was around 2,000 to 3,000 from April to May, but this increased to around 5,000 by October and an average of 7,000 between last month and the present, with the maximum number of workers detected hitting 10,000.
“Since last weekend, hundreds to thousands of people have been detected along the MDL,” said a JCS official. “This year’s work is being finalized and will likely end soon.”
North Korean workers’ work along the MDL is expected to resume next spring when the ground thaws.
North Korea has turned a 60-kilometer (37 miles) section, or 25 percent of the entire 155 miles of the MDL, into a wasteland through work that took about eight months this year.
Barriers were built over 10 kilometers, and in particular, a new electric barbed fence was installed over 40 kilometers south of the existing fence along the Northern Limit Line (NLL) of the demilitarized zone (DMZ).
Work on the new electrified barbed wire fence began around June this year. The fence was installed on 10 or so tactical roads North Korea built horizontally north of the MDL, and on sections of the barrier along the NLL two kilometers north of the MDL.
Unlike the prior single-layer fence, the new electric fence was installed in up to three layers. The second and third layers have sections designed to be electrified to 220 volts, 3,3000 volts and 10,000 volts.
North Korea has even been observed bringing live goats to the electric fences to test their performance.
Pyongyang has also been dismantling the Gyeongui Line transmission towers since Nov. 24, with 11 of 15 transmission towers on the North’s side being taken down so far.
Only the transmission tower closest to the South remains, and the JCS believes the North may use it for surveillance after installing observation equipment.
North Korea’s trash balloon launches toward South Korea have been suspended since the last launch between Nov. 28 and 29. However, with preparations such as securing materials for the balloons continuously detected at several North Korean balloon launch bases, the JCS thinks a surprise launch is possible anytime.
The North’s broadcasts of strange, unsettling sounds have continued for more than 10 hours a day at about 40 locations along the frontline since July 20.
The JCS further analyzed that the North would have a tough time conducting its third reconnaissance satellite launch of the year, considering the current state of preparations.
However, given recent signs of solid-fuel ballistic missile fuselage production and related movements, North Korea’s five-year defense plan, and domestic and international political factors such as the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump set for January, the JCS assessed that a surprise hypersonic IRBM launch could happen this month.
The JCS further predicted that North Korea would maintain its strategy of pursuing dialogue with the United States while ignoring South Korea in line with its recent definition of Seoul as a hostile state and continue its gray zone strategy of trash balloons, noisy broadcasts and GPS jamming against the South.
Since Pyongyang will have to focus its capabilities on supporting Moscow in its war against Kyiv next year, military tensions and conflicts with Seoul would present unwanted burdens, the report said.
“There is a high possibility of various strategic provocations such as intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches and nuclear tests to enhance the North’s negotiation power in talks with the United States, along with drills that resemble shows of force against the South linked to winter exercises, with the support of Russia,” the JCS assessed in its report. “Establishing intelligence cooperation and a readiness posture between South Korea and the United States is urgent.”
A JCS official further added that the South Korean military is currently restricting the movement of military units and helicopters following the declaration of martial law on Dec. 3. He pointed to “a need to normalize training for military readiness” and that the South would conduct “normal training related to readiness posture without cause for public concern.”
BY LIM JEONG-WON [lim.jeongwon@joongang.co.kr]
