Russia fires ICBM at Ukraine as fears in Seoul grow over Moscow’s new nuclear doctrine

Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at Ukraine for the first time on November 21, according to media reports.

In a statement, the Ukrainian Air Force said a Russian attack on the city of Dnipro using cruise missiles was conducted between 5 and 7 a.m. and targeted enterprises and critical infrastructure, Reuters reported.

The ICBM was reportedly launched from Astrakhan, a Russian city near the Caspian Sea. Where it was targeted, what damage it inflicted and what kind of missile was used remains unclear. The Kremlin, when asked about the ICBM launch, said to “refer to the Defense Ministry” without elaborating further.

However, the British newspaper The Telegraph reported earlier that the Russian military was preparing to launch an RS-26 ICBM from a military base in Astrakhan toward Kyiv, citing a report by a Russian media outlet.

Germany’s DPA news agency reported that air raid alerts sounded throughout Ukraine due to the ICBM launch by Russia early Thursday.

ICBMs can be equipped with nuclear or conventional warheads and have ranges of thousands of kilometers.

The launch comes after Russia responded to recent attacks on its territory with the American-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) by adjusting its nuclear doctrine to allow the use of nuclear weapons “against non-nuclear states that are supported by nuclear powers.”

Russia’s decision, which shakes the “balance of terror” maintained since the Cold War, primarily targets the United States, Britain and France, which are established nuclear powers, as well as Ukraine, a non-nuclear state supported by those three nations.

Experts say South Korea, an ally of the United States, could also be included on Russia’s list of nuclear targets if Seoul provides Kyiv with lethal weapons.

Following the ATACMS strike on Tuesday, Ukraine attacked Russian territory using British-supplied Storm Shadow air-to-ground missiles for the first time this week, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing a Western official.

The official, who requested anonymity in the Bloomberg report, explained that the British government had approved the use of the Storm Shadow in response to the North Korean military’s deployment of troops to Russia. He added that the British government views the North Korean deployment as an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.

The Telegraph also reported that fragments of Storm Shadow missiles were found in the village of Marino in the Kursk region of Russia, citing a Russian military blogger, on Wednesday. Kursk is the area where North Korean troops have been deployed.
 
Britain is believed to have followed suit and authorized the use of the Storm Shadow to attack internationally recognized Russian territory after the United States recently lifted restrictions on the use of ATACMS, with a range of about 300 kilometers (186 miles), on Russian territory.

The nuclear doctrine signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday includes a clause that defines an attack by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear state as “a joint attack with a nuclear state.”

This means Russia could target all countries that are allied or cooperating with a nuclear state.

In addition to nuclear powers such as the United States, Britain and France that provide weapons to Ukraine, their North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies could also be included as nuclear attack targets, depending on the situation.

Some point out that even South Korea, an ally of the United States, is a “non-nuclear state receiving support from a nuclear power.”

The South Korean government has not ruled out providing weapons to Ukraine in response to North Korea’s dispatch of troops to Russia.

If Ukraine uses weapons provided by South Korea to attack Russia, Moscow could use this as an excuse to make Seoul subject to its nuclear doctrine.

At the same time, Russia’s nuclear doctrine also says that “in the event of a military coalition attack on Russia or its allies, Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons.”

Russia specified Belarus as an ally through another clause, but the provision could be broadly interpreted at Russia’s convenience.

North Korea and Russia signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty in June this year, elevating their relationship to a de facto military alliance. Hence, there is concern Russia may also classify North Korea as an ally it will protect with nuclear weapons.

In a worst-case scenario, Russia could threaten the U.S. nuclear umbrella over South Korea by providing a nuclear umbrella of its own over North Korea based on its recently forged alliance.

If Russia claims to be North Korea’s “nuclear backer,” South Korea’s deterrence policy toward North Korea, which is centered on extended deterrence, will inevitably change. This is because it will have to simultaneously deal with North Korea, an illegal and unrecognized nuclear state, and Russia, a recognized nuclear state. At the same time, a nuclear “chicken game” might unfold between the United States and Russia, with the Korean Peninsula as a potential stage.

Russia’s new nuclear doctrine has also significantly expanded the conditions, targets and geographical scope of nuclear use, stipulating that “the mere presence of conventional precision-guided weapons allows nuclear use” and that “nuclear weapons can be used even in the event of an attack on military organizations outside Russian territory.”

This suggests that Russia reserves the right to neutralize conventional tactical and strategic weapons such as the ATACMS with nuclear weapons if a hostile state simply possesses them, regardless of whether that state has deployed them to the battlefield.

Experts point out that Russia, a founding signatory to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1963, is destroying relevant norms on its own. The NPT does not explicitly prohibit a nuclear state from launching a pre-emptive strike on a non-nuclear state, but the preamble of the treaty stipulates that nuclear-armed states “should refrain from the threat or use of force.” For this reason, nuclear doctrines such as “no first use” have essentially become the norm among recognized nuclear powers.

However, many still believe that Russia will not cross the “red line” of actually using nuclear weapons. This is because lowering the threshold for nuclear use as a “last resort” by revising nuclear doctrines as a negotiating tactic and actually using nuclear weapons are entirely different.

“In a worst-case scenario, Russia could immediately push Ukraine to surrender by using low-yield tactical nuclear weapons,” said Professor Park Won-gon of Ewha Womans University. “But since the NPT system itself could collapse the moment Russia uses nuclear weapons, Russia couldn’t do so easily.”

In particular, Russia’s use of nuclear weapons on a non-nuclear state could spark a “nuclear domino effect” in which other non-nuclear states, including South Korea, scramble to arm themselves with nuclear weapons.

BY PARK HYUN-JU,LEE YOO-JUNG,LIM JEONG-WON [lim.jeongwon@joongang.co.kr]