North Korea could conduct its seventh nuclear weapons test after the U.S. presidential election in November, the director of South Korea’s spy agency told lawmakers in a closed-door briefing on Thursday.
In his comments to the National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee, National Intelligence Service (NIS) Director Cho Tae-yong said the North could also choose to carry out other weapons tests, such as launching an intercontinental ballistic missile, according to Rep. Lee Seong-Kweun of the conservative People Power Party (PPP) and Rep. Park Sun-won of the liberal Democratic Party (DP).
In their comments to reporters after the NIS briefing, the lawmakers relayed the spy agency’s assessment that Pyongyang possesses around 70 kilograms of plutonium — enough to build more than a dozen nuclear weapons — as well as an unspecified but “significant” amount of highly enriched uranium.
Cho also told lawmakers that the North likely intended to boost domestic morale and highlight its nuclear weapons ambitions ahead of the upcoming U.S. election when its state media publicized leader Kim Jong-un’s visit to a previously undisclosed uranium enrichment facility earlier this month.
“Externally, the disclosure can be interpreted as a move targeting the United States ahead of its presidential election, while it can also be meant to boost internal confidence amid the extremely dire economic situation,” Lee said.
The NIS chief told lawmakers the facility is likely the Kangson uranium enrichment site near Pyongyang.
Cho also said the North’s test launch of new tactical ballistic missiles on Sept. 18 showed its precision strike capabilities had “slightly improved compared to the past,” considering one of the two missiles successfully hit its target.
His briefing on the timing of a potential seventh nuclear test by the North came three days after National Security Adviser Shin Won-sik similarly told domestic media that the North could carry out its seventh nuclear weapons test around the time of the U.S. presidential election in November.
In an interview with Yonhap News TV, Shin said the North would likely decide when to conduct another test after weighing “the strategic advantages and disadvantages” it could incur, but that the time frame of the test includes the period “before and after the U.S. presidential election.”
He also noted that the South Korean government believes the North “still needs to conduct several additional technical tests to miniaturize its nuclear weapons.”
Nuclear weapons testing by the North could also be delayed until flood damage to its main nuclear test site in North Hamgyong Province has been repaired.
Recent satellite images examined by the Stimson Center’s 38 North analysis portal show that several points of access to the North’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site incurred “minor storm damage” after heavy summer rain.
Images from Sept. 3 show that at least seven vehicle bridges have been washed away from the main entry tunnels to the underground test site.
According to 38 North, it could take “several weeks” before the regime fully replaces vehicle bridges at the site.
However, 38 North also noted that the regime had not yet conducted a nuclear weapons test despite restoring access to one of the tunnels into the underground site and rebuilding the surrounding and main support areas in 2022.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
